Chris Oleksy, Founder and CEO, Oleksy Enterprises and SCHAIN10111.09.22
The term black swan was derived from the erroneous presumption that such creatures did not exist (they eventually were discovered in Australia, of all places). Nassim Nicholas Taleb brought meaning and definition to the metaphor in a brilliant way with his 2007 book “The Black Swan,” which the Sunday Times (London) deemed one of the 12 most influential books since World War II. Taleb defines black swan events as incidents that come as a surprise, have a major impact, and are later “rationalized” by hindsight (or in layman’s terms, “Monday morning quarterbacking”). Taleb’s book not only is fascinating, but in my opinion, a necessary tool for mastering the art of the modern supply chain. Why is Taleb’s book compulsory? Because supply chains must be reactive to both known events and the occasional curveball in order to be successful.
Taleb himself is frustrated that many pundits (myself included) have labeled COVID-19 a black swan event because he believes that it was a “swan of a different color.” While the pandemic certainly seemed to come out of nowhere, the author and others insist it was quite predictable. It was neither a black swan nor a white swan event, but a swan of a different color (the powder blue of disposable masks, perhaps?). Regardless of color, the COVID-19 swan exposed the interconnectivity of the global supply “chain of chains” and its numerous ramifications, some of which caught the world off-guard.
Merriam-Webster defines the term “off-guard” as an unprepared or unsuspecting state. That aptly described many of the world’s supply chains before the pandemic (and even now—has the world learned nothing from COVID-19?). Florida recently experienced a swan of epic proportions named Ian, which again caught supply chains off-guard. While watching the destruction in real-time, I wondered aloud how I could help the victims and repair broken supply chains. When my wife innocently asked how I would get to the Sunshine State to help, I realized I was utterly unprepared for the mission. Despite all my years of preaching about supply chain preparedness, I was now guilty of a lack of readiness.
While discussing Hurricane Ian with my wife, I recalled an act of readiness that became a way of life when I began my career 40 years ago in the chemical industry. Chemical companies never let their storage tanks get too low in areas prone to hurricanes or tornadoes—a strategy known as “hurricane heals.” The tanks were filled to keep them from blowing over. This lesson became my first exposure to “seasonality” in MRP planning algorithms.
I recently asked healthcare supply chain colleagues about the readiness of their chains for the next “swan.” More often than not, they admitted there is always “room for improvement.” Their comments echo what I’ve heard from coaches like Bobby Knight (Indiana University), one of the winningest basketball coaches of all time, Lincoln Riley, now with USC football, and Herb Brooks, skipper of the 1980 miracle U.S. hockey team. These coaches build into their systems a culture of readiness—or as Knight regards it, preparedness. Knight has long been linked with the quote, “I don’t believe in luck, I believe in preparation.” The underlying message there is that luck lies at the intersection of preparation and opportunity. The only way to seize opportunities, according to Knight logic, is preparedness.
So how do Knight and other successful coaches achieve this readiness? They meticulously study game films looking for ways to improve future games. Quite simply, they are readying themselves for the next game. This is the kind of behavior that must be built into the global supply chain. Organizations should repeatedly watch “game films” to prepare for any color future swans. One of my right-hand leaders at ATEK Medical would always end a meeting or event by asking the team what it could have done better. Like Knight, Riley, and Brooks, this executive operated with a sense of readiness; he had the team review its performance (in essence, watching a game film) and offer suggestions for improvement.
The crystal ball is very murky right now, so it’s hard to determine the color of the next swan. Of course, the black swans cannot be spotted. But there are numerous cygnets right now that can turn into the next swan of a different color: the Russia-Ukraine conflict; China and its interest in Taiwan; a brewing energy crisis in Europe; record inflation; skyrocketing college costs; social injustice; political clashes; and hurricanes, one of which devastated Puerto Rico for the second time in five years. Although any one of these can turn into the next swan (the Russia-Ukraine war looks to be well on its way), the world’s supply chains can emerge from these events with minimal impact if they are prepared. Can supply chain organizations follow Knight’s lead and intersect preparedness with opportunity? Yes, I believe they can. In fact, my faith in supply chain preparedness is so strong that I am making this subject the final chapter in my career, via SCHAIN101, a case study approach to helping individuals and their organizations address supply chain readiness.
Many people I talk to including my 86-year-old mother wonder why I am not retired and playing golf. “You’ve been preaching supply chain for too many years to count. Aren’t you ready for more fun?” my mother asks. The answer is simple—I’m not good enough to play that much golf but more importantly, I feel a strong calling to help others learn this “craft” called supply chain so their chains and organizations will be ready for any curveballs thrown their way. Certainly, I enjoy a round of golf now and then, and marinating ice cubes on a San Diego beach, but I take more pleasure in helping employees and organizations prepare for the next swan event. The world simply cannot run out of food, baby formula, medical products, or toilet paper again.
At the MPO Summit in October, I officially kicked off SCHAIN101 with a mini workshop, sharing 40-plus years of game film experience I’ve gained throughout my career. I echoed Farmers Insurance when I said, “I know a thing or two because I’ve seen a thing or two.” Many of the panels at the Summit also knew a thing or two, and offered extremely helpful readiness tips. Personally, I felt the entire event was an extremely valuable readiness, game film, exercise; visit the MPO website (www.mpomag.com) for a recap.
Next year, MPO will celebrate its 20th anniversary of helping the medtech industry prepare and acclimate itself to outsourcing. For almost that entire time, I’ve written columns in the magazine and led live discussions at events as one of their supply chain partners (along with other value chain friends and colleagues). For the past year, I’ve assembled what I believe to be the traits, skills, characteristics of supply chain readiness, and that strategy comprises about 100 elements. I am eager to share my game films at SCHAIN101 and through MPO (print and digital) to help companies master supply chain preparedness for the opportunities coming their way.
Since COVID-19, many organizations have watched their own game films tirelessly and asked what they or their teams could have done differently to prepare for the pandemic and its aftermath. More recently, many firms contemplated what they could have or should have done differently to prepare for Hurricane Ian. I urge companies to now think about potential supply chain changes resulting from the China/Taiwan situation, or more frequent and greater magnitude wildfires in California. Winter is approaching in the Northern Hemisphere—companies should start preparing for potential blizzards (unless Mother Nature goes easy on the region this season). It is time for unprecedented game film study for preparedness/readiness! Knight would likely say, “we have business to do” and USC’s Trojans official fight song urge its players to “fight on.” I will do the same going forward, fighting to help value chain organizations create their own hurricane heals, secure shotguns for those destructive black swans, and build readiness to seize the wonderful opportunities that await the industry.
Chris Oleksy is founder and CEO of Oleksy Enterprises, and SCHAIN101. Oleksy can be reached at chris@oleksyenterprises.com or chris@schain101.com
Taleb himself is frustrated that many pundits (myself included) have labeled COVID-19 a black swan event because he believes that it was a “swan of a different color.” While the pandemic certainly seemed to come out of nowhere, the author and others insist it was quite predictable. It was neither a black swan nor a white swan event, but a swan of a different color (the powder blue of disposable masks, perhaps?). Regardless of color, the COVID-19 swan exposed the interconnectivity of the global supply “chain of chains” and its numerous ramifications, some of which caught the world off-guard.
Merriam-Webster defines the term “off-guard” as an unprepared or unsuspecting state. That aptly described many of the world’s supply chains before the pandemic (and even now—has the world learned nothing from COVID-19?). Florida recently experienced a swan of epic proportions named Ian, which again caught supply chains off-guard. While watching the destruction in real-time, I wondered aloud how I could help the victims and repair broken supply chains. When my wife innocently asked how I would get to the Sunshine State to help, I realized I was utterly unprepared for the mission. Despite all my years of preaching about supply chain preparedness, I was now guilty of a lack of readiness.
While discussing Hurricane Ian with my wife, I recalled an act of readiness that became a way of life when I began my career 40 years ago in the chemical industry. Chemical companies never let their storage tanks get too low in areas prone to hurricanes or tornadoes—a strategy known as “hurricane heals.” The tanks were filled to keep them from blowing over. This lesson became my first exposure to “seasonality” in MRP planning algorithms.
I recently asked healthcare supply chain colleagues about the readiness of their chains for the next “swan.” More often than not, they admitted there is always “room for improvement.” Their comments echo what I’ve heard from coaches like Bobby Knight (Indiana University), one of the winningest basketball coaches of all time, Lincoln Riley, now with USC football, and Herb Brooks, skipper of the 1980 miracle U.S. hockey team. These coaches build into their systems a culture of readiness—or as Knight regards it, preparedness. Knight has long been linked with the quote, “I don’t believe in luck, I believe in preparation.” The underlying message there is that luck lies at the intersection of preparation and opportunity. The only way to seize opportunities, according to Knight logic, is preparedness.
So how do Knight and other successful coaches achieve this readiness? They meticulously study game films looking for ways to improve future games. Quite simply, they are readying themselves for the next game. This is the kind of behavior that must be built into the global supply chain. Organizations should repeatedly watch “game films” to prepare for any color future swans. One of my right-hand leaders at ATEK Medical would always end a meeting or event by asking the team what it could have done better. Like Knight, Riley, and Brooks, this executive operated with a sense of readiness; he had the team review its performance (in essence, watching a game film) and offer suggestions for improvement.
The crystal ball is very murky right now, so it’s hard to determine the color of the next swan. Of course, the black swans cannot be spotted. But there are numerous cygnets right now that can turn into the next swan of a different color: the Russia-Ukraine conflict; China and its interest in Taiwan; a brewing energy crisis in Europe; record inflation; skyrocketing college costs; social injustice; political clashes; and hurricanes, one of which devastated Puerto Rico for the second time in five years. Although any one of these can turn into the next swan (the Russia-Ukraine war looks to be well on its way), the world’s supply chains can emerge from these events with minimal impact if they are prepared. Can supply chain organizations follow Knight’s lead and intersect preparedness with opportunity? Yes, I believe they can. In fact, my faith in supply chain preparedness is so strong that I am making this subject the final chapter in my career, via SCHAIN101, a case study approach to helping individuals and their organizations address supply chain readiness.
Many people I talk to including my 86-year-old mother wonder why I am not retired and playing golf. “You’ve been preaching supply chain for too many years to count. Aren’t you ready for more fun?” my mother asks. The answer is simple—I’m not good enough to play that much golf but more importantly, I feel a strong calling to help others learn this “craft” called supply chain so their chains and organizations will be ready for any curveballs thrown their way. Certainly, I enjoy a round of golf now and then, and marinating ice cubes on a San Diego beach, but I take more pleasure in helping employees and organizations prepare for the next swan event. The world simply cannot run out of food, baby formula, medical products, or toilet paper again.
At the MPO Summit in October, I officially kicked off SCHAIN101 with a mini workshop, sharing 40-plus years of game film experience I’ve gained throughout my career. I echoed Farmers Insurance when I said, “I know a thing or two because I’ve seen a thing or two.” Many of the panels at the Summit also knew a thing or two, and offered extremely helpful readiness tips. Personally, I felt the entire event was an extremely valuable readiness, game film, exercise; visit the MPO website (www.mpomag.com) for a recap.
Next year, MPO will celebrate its 20th anniversary of helping the medtech industry prepare and acclimate itself to outsourcing. For almost that entire time, I’ve written columns in the magazine and led live discussions at events as one of their supply chain partners (along with other value chain friends and colleagues). For the past year, I’ve assembled what I believe to be the traits, skills, characteristics of supply chain readiness, and that strategy comprises about 100 elements. I am eager to share my game films at SCHAIN101 and through MPO (print and digital) to help companies master supply chain preparedness for the opportunities coming their way.
Since COVID-19, many organizations have watched their own game films tirelessly and asked what they or their teams could have done differently to prepare for the pandemic and its aftermath. More recently, many firms contemplated what they could have or should have done differently to prepare for Hurricane Ian. I urge companies to now think about potential supply chain changes resulting from the China/Taiwan situation, or more frequent and greater magnitude wildfires in California. Winter is approaching in the Northern Hemisphere—companies should start preparing for potential blizzards (unless Mother Nature goes easy on the region this season). It is time for unprecedented game film study for preparedness/readiness! Knight would likely say, “we have business to do” and USC’s Trojans official fight song urge its players to “fight on.” I will do the same going forward, fighting to help value chain organizations create their own hurricane heals, secure shotguns for those destructive black swans, and build readiness to seize the wonderful opportunities that await the industry.
Chris Oleksy is founder and CEO of Oleksy Enterprises, and SCHAIN101. Oleksy can be reached at chris@oleksyenterprises.com or chris@schain101.com
