Maria Shepherd09.05.12
Believe it or Not: U.S. Physician Shortages Predicted by 2015
It defies logic, but the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) is predicting dire shortages of physicians in the United States by 2015. The paradox lies in the fact that in 2010, the number of U.S. doctors (including residents) was estimated at 799,509, or 258.7 for every 100,000 Americans.1
Shortages aren’t going to happen in the top five states, such as Massachusetts, Maryland, New York, Rhode Island or Connecticut (see Chart 1), but in places below the state median of 244.2 doctors per 100,000 Americans. How did this happen?
Why It’s Important
An increasing number of national, state and specialty specific studies are sounding the alarm that the U.S. physician workforce is facing current or future shortages. Thirty-three states reported physician shortages, and an additional 22 states report shortages of specialty doctors. For example, the 2009 California HealthCare Foundation report states that it is likely to face physician shortages in 2015.3 It is not unexpected that the rural regions of California report fewer physicians per capita than urban regions, and that the state is geographically large, with many rural sections. Less obvious is the burden of an aging physician population combined with reported difficulties recruiting younger MDs in California. In 2000, greater than one-quarter of physicians in California were older than the age of 55. Compounding this problem, California has a shrinking supply of primary care physicians, but a wealth of medical specialists. California’s population is increasing at a rapid pace, which will further stress its physician workforce and healthcare system.
What About Medical Specialties?
While the sources of the information in Table 1 may be somewhat biased, shortages of medical specialists are confirmed by state surveys and other independent sources.
The list continues, including family physicians, gastroenterologists, general surgery, neurosurgery, rheumatology, etc.
How Did This Happen?
According to the AAMC, educating and training more doctors will not be enough to address the projected shortage.5 The association suggests solutions such as improving efficiency, reconfiguring the way some services are delivered and making better use of U.S. physicians.
Possible Solutions
The authors of a research paper titled “The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections Through 2025,” suggest possible solutions:
The Opportunity
In the solutions offered above by the AAMC, there is only one suggestion where medical device manufacturers can contribute to improved outcomes while carving out new space for their products: Develop devices for use by the non-physician. According to the International Council of Nurses, a nurse practitioner is an “RN [registered nurse] who has acquired the expert knowledge base, complex decision-making skills and clinical competencies for expanded practice, the characteristics of which would be determined by the context in which she or he is credentialed to practice.”8
The perfect example is the CRNA, who now performs the role of the anesthesiologist in many operating rooms. Nurse practitioners and physician assistants can specialize and perform roles that formerly were held only by doctors. In the world of medical device design, this means broadening the marketing specification to include the unmet needs of a new provider.
References:
Maria Shepherd, founder of Data Decision Group, has 20 years of leadership experience in medical device and life-sciences marketing. Following a career including serving as vice president of marketing for Oridion Medical; director of marketing for Philips Medical; and senior management roles at Boston Scientific Inc., she founded Data Decision Group. Her firm quantitatively and qualitatively sizes opportunities, evaluates new technologies, and assesses prospective acquisitions for medtech companies. Shepherd teaches marketing and product development courses and recently was appointed to the board of the MSBiV Medtech Investment Committee. She can be reached at (617) 548-9892 and mshepherd@ddecisiongroup.com.
It defies logic, but the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) is predicting dire shortages of physicians in the United States by 2015. The paradox lies in the fact that in 2010, the number of U.S. doctors (including residents) was estimated at 799,509, or 258.7 for every 100,000 Americans.1
Shortages aren’t going to happen in the top five states, such as Massachusetts, Maryland, New York, Rhode Island or Connecticut (see Chart 1), but in places below the state median of 244.2 doctors per 100,000 Americans. How did this happen?
Why It’s Important
An increasing number of national, state and specialty specific studies are sounding the alarm that the U.S. physician workforce is facing current or future shortages. Thirty-three states reported physician shortages, and an additional 22 states report shortages of specialty doctors. For example, the 2009 California HealthCare Foundation report states that it is likely to face physician shortages in 2015.3 It is not unexpected that the rural regions of California report fewer physicians per capita than urban regions, and that the state is geographically large, with many rural sections. Less obvious is the burden of an aging physician population combined with reported difficulties recruiting younger MDs in California. In 2000, greater than one-quarter of physicians in California were older than the age of 55. Compounding this problem, California has a shrinking supply of primary care physicians, but a wealth of medical specialists. California’s population is increasing at a rapid pace, which will further stress its physician workforce and healthcare system.
What About Medical Specialties?
While the sources of the information in Table 1 may be somewhat biased, shortages of medical specialists are confirmed by state surveys and other independent sources.
The list continues, including family physicians, gastroenterologists, general surgery, neurosurgery, rheumatology, etc.
How Did This Happen?
According to the AAMC, educating and training more doctors will not be enough to address the projected shortage.5 The association suggests solutions such as improving efficiency, reconfiguring the way some services are delivered and making better use of U.S. physicians.
Possible Solutions
The authors of a research paper titled “The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections Through 2025,” suggest possible solutions:
- Future demand for physicians would be significantly reduced if physician assistants and nurse practitioners play a larger role in patient care;
- Medical school enrollment should increase by 30 percent. Medical school expansion will not eliminate the projected shortage, but moderate it; and
- Evidence exists that minority physicians are more likely to provide care for poor and under-served communities. Increasing the diversity of the physician workforce should continue to be a priority of the medical education community.7
The Opportunity
In the solutions offered above by the AAMC, there is only one suggestion where medical device manufacturers can contribute to improved outcomes while carving out new space for their products: Develop devices for use by the non-physician. According to the International Council of Nurses, a nurse practitioner is an “RN [registered nurse] who has acquired the expert knowledge base, complex decision-making skills and clinical competencies for expanded practice, the characteristics of which would be determined by the context in which she or he is credentialed to practice.”8
The perfect example is the CRNA, who now performs the role of the anesthesiologist in many operating rooms. Nurse practitioners and physician assistants can specialize and perform roles that formerly were held only by doctors. In the world of medical device design, this means broadening the marketing specification to include the unmet needs of a new provider.
References:
- 2011 State Physician Workforce, Center for Workforce Studies, November 2011
- Ibid
- www.chcf.org
- Recent Studies and Reports on Physician Shortages in the U.S., August 2011, AAMC.org
- The Complexities of Physician Supply and Demand: Projections Through 2025, AAMC.org
- Ibid
- Saha, S. & S. Shipman. 2006. “The Rationale for Diversity in the Health Professions: A Review of the Evidence.” U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, Health Resources and Services Administration: Rockville, Md.
- International Council of Nurses. “Nurse Practitioner/Advanced Practice Nurse: Definition and Characteristics.” Nursing Matters Fact Sheets. http://icn-apnetwork.org/. Retrieved 11 December 2011
Maria Shepherd, founder of Data Decision Group, has 20 years of leadership experience in medical device and life-sciences marketing. Following a career including serving as vice president of marketing for Oridion Medical; director of marketing for Philips Medical; and senior management roles at Boston Scientific Inc., she founded Data Decision Group. Her firm quantitatively and qualitatively sizes opportunities, evaluates new technologies, and assesses prospective acquisitions for medtech companies. Shepherd teaches marketing and product development courses and recently was appointed to the board of the MSBiV Medtech Investment Committee. She can be reached at (617) 548-9892 and mshepherd@ddecisiongroup.com.