Japan’s National Institute of Population and Social Security Research recently made public its national demographic report, predicting the dynamic trends of the nation’s population through 2055. This report, along with national census surveillance findings, is released every five years.

According to the study, the country’s population peaked at 127.8 million in 2005 yet is expected to decrease over time. In 2030, the total population is predicted to drop to 118.4 million and slide even further to 97.8 million in 2055. The current percentage of the elderly population (defined as older than 65 years) is 20.2% but is expected to increase to 32.6% of the total population in 2030 and 43.3% in 2055, according to the report. Conversely, the percentage of children younger than 14 years of age currently is 13.8%. The report predicts this demographic to drop to 11.4% of the total population in 2030 and 10.8% by 2055.

What are some factors impacting these forecasted trends? One indicator has been Japan’s low fertility rate, which is a serious social problem for the country. The current total fertility ratio (TFR = number of children given birth per woman) is only 1.26, which is the lowest among leading industrialized countries, including the United States and Europe. The TFR gradually has decreased in the last decade due to women’s social advancement, the tendency toward getting married later in life and the overall growth of women’s independence. However, the TFR most likely will increase in the next few years as people born from 1971 to 1974 are expected to give birth to a new generation of babies. Unfortunately, this most likely will be just a transient phenomenon, as the TFR is forecasted to decrease to 1.21 (at worst) in 2013 and then gradually rise back to 1.26 in 2055. Of course, these are just mean predictions, and the actual numbers could differ.

The current healthcare and pension systems basically are designed by the demographic prediction made in 2000, at which time the mean TFR for today was predicted at 1.39. Since the actual TFR is lower today, the healthcare (as well as pension) system may need to be reviewed sooner rather than later.

Yoshio Mitsumori is the president and CEO for Tokyo-based ADMIS, a consultant specializing in the medical device industry. He has more than 25 years of experience in the medical industry, including positions with the Itochu Corp., U.S. Surgical, National Medical Enterprises and Century Medical. A member of RAPS, he has spoken at many industry events and worked extensively in international trade of medical products and technologies. He can be reached at [email protected].